Well why not… it’s that time of the year, look back and reflect on all those things you meant to do, or look forward and predict what will happen in the future. Is your glass half empty or half full? Well I’m going to look forward so here we go, my top 5 predictions for the coming year :
1. Social networking sites such as FaceBook and MySpace will grow into the Enterprise, but not as we know it. Already we are seeing a backlash because of advertising, people are beginning to create their own private social networks and beginning to see the real power of collaboration. Large Enterprises will not be slow to catch on, everyone want’s their own space at work, and everyone wants to collaborate and take advantage of centralised functions, what better way to do this than with the FaceBook model but without the Mickey Mouse consumer applets and advertising.
2. SOA will become so mainstream that it will be taken as a given that all new projects will be based on a service oriented architecture. Knowledge of SOA has now reached the point where it is obvious there will be long-term cost advantages though its implementation, all of the product vendors are punting SOA enable products. Only a fool would take an alternative route. Much more emphasis will be on the business side of SOA and how to best take advantage of the services that have been created or will become available.
3. Business Process Management tools will become the next big thing in applications circles, yes I know they have been around for a long time, but it has always been a bit confusing and a bit of a black art. As SOA programmes mature, we will see a shift to the business user and therefore a need to utilise this technology properly. To date there has been a lot of emphasis on integration tools at the back end and modelling tools at the front end. Next year we will see a dramatic increase in the join, that is, using modelling tools to model and then drive and run the services.
4. One more big SaaS player will emerge. I wish I could predict who it will be. Clearly the SalesForce model is working and has now become a threat to the big software providers and to the biggest systems integrators and service companies. One of them will announce an alternate set of offerings/services and attack the medium to large Enterprise space
5. The e-reader will finally come into its own. Actually I think it will take until 2009 for this to happen, but I’m really hoping that Sony or Amazon will come up with better versions of the Digital Book and the Kindle. The concepts are fantastic and will, I have no doubt, revolutionise both our work and social lives, but the devices are just plain horrible. The best device of the year has to be the iTouch (not sure about the iPhone), its a real shame it did not include an e-reader in the package.
And finally, many thanks to Jason Slater for his light heated top 5 alternative predictions for 2008:
We will start getting the bandwidth we ordered on Broadband.
Spam will mysteriously disappear overnight.
Microsoft and Apple will merge their operating systems in a bid to end Linux.
No public personal data will be lost by large public organisations.
A re-discovered Analogue will re-emerge as a superior alternative to digital.
A very Merry Christmas and Happy New year to you all!
